"India-US Relations: Evolving Partnerships in a Multipolar World", Trump's administration 2.0

  

Trump 2.0

 

In light of the possible political shifts in the US, India is in a unique situation. In contrast to many American friends, India has been able to deepen its ties with the US under both Democratic and Republican administrations, positioning itself as a vital ally in a number of areas, such as trade, technology, and security. Notwithstanding the steady expansion of the India-US alliance during the previous 20 years, issues still exist in areas like immigration, trade regulations, and geopolitical alignments, especially with regard to China and Russia. In order to further fortify and adjust this vital relationship in a world that is becoming more multipolar, India must make use of its strategic advantages as it negotiates these complexities, such as its active engagement with US policymakers, solid diaspora ties, and growing significance in the Indo-Pacific region.

How Have Relations Between the US and India Changed Over Time? From Distancing to IntimationThe Thaw of the Cold War: India and the US were on opposing sides during the Cold War, with India seeking non-alignment and Pakistan, India's main adversary at the time, siding with the US. With India's economic liberalization and the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, the relationship started to warm up. The first presidential visit to India in over two decades, President Bill Clinton's 2000 visit, was a major turning point. During this time, there was a surge in economic cooperation and the start of strategic discussions.The expanding relationships were further cemented in 2004 with the signing of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP). Nuclear Discovery: A New Era of Confidence India-US relations underwent a sea change with the 2008 Civil Nuclear Agreement. With this agreement, India's nuclear isolation was essentially lifted, and it was acknowledged as a responsible nuclear state. Even though India did not sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the pact cleared the path for its inclusion in the international nuclear order. It also resulted in more collaboration in the high-tech and defense industries. When the agreement was implemented in 2008, it showed that the US was committed to improving India's standing internationally.

Defense Ties: From Purchaser to Partner Since the early 2000s, India and the US have increased their defense collaboration dramatically. India was elevated from a peripheral buyer to a Major Defense Partner by the United States in 2016. India was granted license-free access to a variety of military and dual-use technologies governed by the US Department of Commerce in 2018 after being promoted to Strategic Trade Authorization tier 1. Deeper military cooperation has been made possible by the signing of key accords like as BECA (2020), COMCASA (2018), and LEMOA (2016).The formation of the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in 2018 and joint exercises like Malabar have further reinforced strategic ties. Beyond Trade to Strategic Cooperation: Economic Synergy One of the main forces behind the India-US cooperation has been economic ties. In 2023–2024, India and the US had USD 118.28 billion in bilateral trade. Today, the US is India's biggest trading partner and a major source of foreign direct investment. Beyond trade, cooperation has spread to sectors like healthcare, digital economy, and sustainable energy.Initiatives like the 2021 US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP) and the Covid-19 vaccine production partnership demonstrate how economic connections are changing. Working Together in the Digital Age: In the twenty-first century, technology collaboration has become a vital component of India-US ties. The two nations have set up a number of platforms for cooperation in cutting-edge fields like 5G, AI, and quantum computing. Since its creation in 2009, the US-India Science and Technology Endowment Fund has promoted entrepreneurship and innovation.The strategic significance of tech collaboration in bilateral ties is highlighted by recent initiatives such as the Critical and Emerging Technology Initiative (iCET), which was introduced in 2022, and the US-India Artificial Intelligence Initiative. Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Alignment Partners: India and the United States now share a more strategic perspective as a result of China's ascent. This alignment is demonstrated by the resuscitation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which involves the US, Japan, Australia, and India. The increasing convergence is shown in India's inclusion in the US Indo-Pacific strategy.The extent of geopolitical cooperation is exemplified by joint declarations highlighting a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and programs such as the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative.

What are the main points of contention between the US and India? Trade Conflicts: Handling Unsteady Economic Conditions Economic tensions between the US and India continue despite an increase in bilateral commerce. India's trade surplus (USD 36.74 billion in 2023–24), obstacles to market access, and worries about intellectual property rights are the main difficulties from the US perspective. India has protested US steel and aluminum tariffs, while the US has attacked India's e-commerce rules and data localization policy. Trade ties are made more difficult by India's 2019 expulsion from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and continuing disputes at the WTO on agricultural subsidies.Alliance Expectations vs. Strategic Autonomy: India's strategy of strategic autonomy frequently runs counter to US demands for greater alignment. This is demonstrated by India's position on the Russia-Ukraine War, which includes its failure to denounce Russian actions in Ukraine and its ongoing acquisition of Russian oil (Russia is India's largest supplier) and military hardware (such as the S-400 missile system). India's defense decisions are threatened by the US's CAATSA sanctions. In a similar vein, India's involvement in alliances like SCO and BRICS, which include US rivals, occasionally causes conflict. For both countries, striking a balance between these conflicting objectives while preserving a solid cooperation continues to be extremely difficult.

Defense Cooperation and Technology Transfer: Although defense relations have significantly improved, problems with cooperative production and technology transfer still exist. India wants more technology cooperation and innovative technologies, but US export control laws frequently prevent these kinds of transfers. Deeper defense cooperation is also impacted by the delay in implementing accords like COMCASA and BECA because of Indian information security concerns. Though progress has been slower than expected, recent programs like the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) try to solve these difficulties.Human Rights and Democratic Values: Bilateral relations are occasionally strained by US concerns about human rights issues in India, such as press freedom, religious freedom, and minority treatment. These tensions are emphasized by the 2020 and 2021 recommendations by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom to identify India as a "country of particular concern". Such criticisms are seen by India as meddling in domestic matters. It is still difficult to strike a balance between values-based diplomacy and strategic partnerships, as shown by the US's subdued reactions to contentious Indian measures like the removal of Article 370 in Kashmir.Climate Change and Energy: Although both nations are dedicated to combating climate change, there are still disagreements over the scope and speed of action. India highlights its development needs and demands more financial assistance from wealthier countries, while the US advocates for more aggressive carbon reduction targets. The difficulties are emphasized by disagreements over topics like carbon border fees and the phase-out or phasing-down of coal.Intellectual Property Rights: In India-US relations, the preservation of intellectual property rights (IPRs) continues to be a controversial topic. In the Special 301 Report, the US has regularly ranked India on its Priority Watch List due to issues with copyright piracy, patent laws, and trademark infringement. Particularly contentious issues have been India's position on agricultural patents and its use of compulsory licensing for pharmaceuticals. Disparities in how India approaches innovation and technology access still exist, despite the country's efforts to fortify its IPR framework, which included the National IPR Policy in 2016.

Green Energy Corridor: With an emphasis on cooperative development and manufacturing of renewable energy technology, India may suggest a bilateral Green Energy Corridor. This could involve joint ventures for the production of green energy equipment, cooperative research on solar, wind, and hydrogen technologies, and cooperative projects for sustainable urban development. Through the utilization of US technological know-how and India's size, this project has the potential to expedite the clean energy transitions of both nations. This collaboration might be financially feasible while tackling climate change issues by providing preferential market access for jointly produced green technologies.Digital Democracy Initiative: India and the US might start a Digital Democracy Initiative that focuses on creating common standards and technology for a safe and open internet. This might involve working together to combat misinformation, advance digital literacy, and strengthen cybersecurity. Open-source digital public goods and cooperative initiatives to create privacy-preserving technology may be essential elements. India can stress its role in establishing global digital rules and allay US concerns about its tech policies by harmonizing its digital governance measures. Joint initiatives to reduce the digital divide in both nations may also be part of this effort.Strategic Resource Partnership: In order to secure and diversify US supply chains for vital resources, India can offer to become a significant partner. This could entail cooperative research on substitute materials, cooperative production and exploration of rare earth elements, and coordinated strategic resource stockpiling. India can establish itself as a trustworthy substitute for China in vital supply chains by utilizing its manufacturing prowess and geological resources. This collaboration might be accelerated by implementing expedited environmental clearances and providing financial incentives for such initiatives.Beyond the Covid-19 Pandemic: India might suggest a broader Health Security Alliance, building on the collaboration during the pandemic. Shared early warning systems for possible pandemics, cooperative research on newly developing infectious diseases, and cooperative facilities for vaccine development and manufacture are a few examples of this. A strong, multidimensional collaboration might result from expanding this to fields like telemedicine, medical device development, and health data analytics. This partnership might be strengthened even more by providing reciprocal recognition of medical credentials and expedited approval procedures for collaborative medical research.India and the United States could establish a Space Commercialization Consortium with the aim of collaborating on the development of commercial space technologies and services. This might involve joint initiatives in the fields of space-based internet services, small satellite development, and space tourism technology. This partnership might hasten space commercialization by fusing NASA's cutting-edge capabilities with ISRO's economical strategy. This alliance might be appealing to both nations if it provides preferential launch services for collaborative projects and establishes a common regulatory framework for commercial space operations.AgriTech Innovation Hub: With an emphasis on creating and implementing cutting-edge agricultural technologies, India and the US can collaborate to construct an AgriTech Innovation Hub. This might involve collaborative research on precision agricultural methods, AI-powered pest management systems, and climate-resilient crops. This facility could speed up advancements in food security by fusing India's varied agro-climatic zones with US agricultural research skills. The initiative's practical impact might be increased by establishing farmer exchange programs and providing field testing opportunities for jointly developed technology in India.The defense relationship is stronger than it has ever been. Legacy agreements, long-standing procedures, and the current geopolitical environment all play a role in this, as does India's newfound desire to diversify away from long-standing but essential reliance as much as feasible. There have been five 2+2 meetings with the corresponding foreign and defense ministers. Last month, a significant supply arrangement was struck. For the Indian military, C-130Js, C-17s, P8Is, Apaches, Chinooks, and MH60R helicopters are evolving capabilities.The US military has contacted Indian defense companies to manufacture everything from artillery and bullets to nuts and bolts. All three Indian services participate in five sets of increasingly intricate bilateral military drills. Overall, it is evident that military and security relations are a priority.